Quarterly Market Call
January Market Call: 01.24.2023
Inflation fell further during the fourth quarter of 2022 as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to slow the economy. Despite the interest rate hikes, the economy continued to grow and jobs remained plentiful. We share our thoughts about what is on the horizon for the year ahead.
October Market Call: 10.21.2022
During the third quarter, inflation appeared to finally hit its peak as supply and demand realigned and global central banks aggressively increased interest rates to cool off economies. The S&P 500 Index and the Bloomberg Intermediate Bond Index initially rose substantially during the quarter but subsequently fell to new lows for the year. Labor data continued to indicate a strong jobs market that may require additional tightening of monetary policy. Perkins Coie Trust Company (PCTC) shares its perspective on third-quarter corporate earnings data and provides our thoughts about how these issues may shape the months ahead.
July Market Call: 07.22.2022
The second-quarter inflation data continued to rise and headlines about a potential recession have people concerned, yet the job market still remains strong. We share our thoughts on the first half of 2022 and what could happen for the balance of the year.
April Market Call: 04.26.2022
While many parts of the economy remained strong, high inflation, monetary policy, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused significant disruptions and put pressure on markets in the first quarter of 2022. We share our perspective on current markets and our outlook for the remainder of the year.
January Market Call: 01.26.2022
While the market finished strong in 2021, this year has had a rocky start with investors concerned about Fed plans to fend off sustained inflation by raising rates. We share our thoughts about what is on the horizon for the year ahead. Listen to the recording.
October Market Call: 10.28.2021
We share our perspective on the third-quarter corporate earnings data, the fragility of global supply chains, high inflation data, and how these issues may shape the months ahead. Listen to the recording.
July Market Call: 07.29.2021
We share our thoughts on the second quarter of 2021, including a discussion about inflation and interest rates, as well as our outlook for the second half of the year. Listen to the recording.
April Market Call: 04.28.2021
We discuss our perspective on the first quarter of 2021, including a discussion about corporate earnings and the consumer, as well as our outlook for the remainder of the year. Listen to the recording.
November Market Call: 11.10.2020
We share our perspective on what the third quarter corporate earnings data and the election results mean to current market conditions and what might be ahead for the balance of 2020 and into 2021. Listen to the recording.
July Market Call: 07.30.2020
With the second quarter corporate earnings season underway and the pandemic still taking a toll, we share our perspective on what the data is telling us about current markets and what lies ahead. Listen to the recording.
May Market Call: 05.14.2020
The markets have had a volatile year as investors deal with the impacts of COVID-19. As states prepare to reopen for business, we discuss the implications for economics and markets. Listen to the recording.
Market Update: 04.21.2020
Yesterday, West Texas Intermediate futures contracts, considered the benchmark for U.S. crude oil prices, made history by plunging into negative territory for the first time ever.
Market Update: 04.01.2020
As we conclude the first quarter of 2020, uncertainty still prevails but a sense of calm has returned to the markets.
Market Update: 03.09.2020
We can’t possibly predict market tops or bottoms and that the best course of action is to have a strategic plan and stick to it.
Market Update: 02.26.2020
As your investment manager, we are focused on looking to the data for indicators of the impact on health, global economics, and earnings expectations.
Volatility is normal: Markets reward investors who stick to their plans. The S&P 500 has suffered pullbacks of -10% or more in 22 of the past 40 years (with an overall average intra-year drop of more than -14%). Despite the usual dips (and sometimes dives), the index still managed to muster a positive return in 31 of the 40 years.
Source: J.P. Morgan
Real assets can offer a combination of attractive returns, diversification, inflation protection, and yield. The good news for investors is that REITs, energy infrastructure, and global infrastructure have historically offered an effective hedge against rising inflation, largely because of the pricing power of the underlying physical assets.
An estimated $120 billion poured into sustainable investments in 2021, doubling the $51.1 billion captured by ESG funds in 2020. This represents 33%, or one in three dollars, of the $51.4 trillion in total U.S. assets under professional management.
Source: US SIF Foundation
Source: Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy
A 65-year-old couple who retired in 2021 can expect to spend $315,000 on health care and medical expenses throughout retirement.
67% of Americans have no estate plan.
Source: Caring.com 2022
For the 2021-2022 school year, the year-over-year average increase in published tuition and fees for colleges and universities was 2.1% for private not-for-profit schools, and 1.6% for in-state students and 1.5% for out-of-state students at public schools.
Source: College Board 2022
A 65-year-old can expect to live another 19 to 21 1/2 years, on average and a third of 65-year-olds will hit age 90, and 1 in 7 will live beyond age 95.
Source: Social Security Administration
Timing is critical: By missing the market’s best days, investors can lose prime opportunities for portfolio growth.
In the past 20 years, 7 of the best days happened within just about two weeks of the 10 worst days.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Strong cyber hygiene development and practice includes; the implementation of robust passwords, and the security of devices especially when travelling. Determine if encryption for phones, laptops and smart devices may be needed. Also, remember utilize detection software for protection from spear-phishing (an email fraud attempt targeting confidential information) and malware (software intended to damage or disable systems).
Despite increasing wealth, 30% of investors surveyed by Spectrem Group said they are concerned about
potentially needing to delay their retirement.
Capital goes where it’s welcome and stays where it’s well treated.
Source: Walter B. Wriston
The five critical factors for high net worth investors in selection of an advisor are, in order of importance, trustworthiness, transparency, investment track record, depth of products and services, and fees and commissions. The first three scored over 90% in importance.
Source: Spectrem Group survey
Investors with at least $5 million in assets and annual income of $200,000 prefer smaller boutiques as opposed to larger Wall Street firms by virtue of greater perceived independence and client-centricity.
Source: Luxury Institute research
Across all income levels, investors who have developed comprehensive financial planning strategies are more likely to feel they are on target to achieve their financial goals. 53% of those with plans versus 26% of those without plans felt very confident about managing money and investments.
Source: Household Financial Planning Survey, Certified Financial Planning Board
Investment success isn’t about winning or losing, but about meeting life goals and objectives— in other words, surviving and thriving.
Source: Kathleen Burns Kingsbury
Conventional guidance for retirees is to rollover employer-sponsored plans into an IRA due to the broader investment options available. However, circumstances where this may not be advantageous include, significant positions of appreciated employer stock in the qualified plan, access to funds for borrowing needs, and protection from creditors, depending upon state law.
More than an estimated $30 trillion of wealth is expected to transfer from boomer parents to the millennial generation in the next three to four decades.
Source: “The Greater Wealth Transfer: Capitalizing on the Intergenerational Shift in Wealth,” Accenture
The Affordable Care Act mandates a new 3.8% Medicare contribution tax on unearned income to be imposed on investment income over $200,000 for single individuals and $250,000 for married individuals filing jointly.
Beyond the annual exclusions from gift tax (presently $15,000), there is an unlimited exclusion for payments made directly to an educational institution or medical provider. Payments qualifying for the educational exclusions are limited to tuition only.
In 2021, overall charitable giving in the United States increased by 8.9% on a year-over-year basis. Americans gave $484.85 billion in 2021.
Source: Blackbaud Institute
Common estate planning techniques are: (1) create a will, (2) establish a trust, (3) update estate plans, and (4) plan for disability.
Revisions to the Washington Trust Act that took effect January 1, 2012 require substantial notice to beneficiaries from trustees of irrevocable trusts in Washington State.
Asset allocation strategy is essential to attainment of financial objectives, but asset location—placing tax-inefficient investments in tax-advantaged accounts—may enhance after-tax performance. Tax-aware financial planning and tax-efficient portfolio construction may be of increasing importance with the prospect of potentially higher taxes.
Increasingly, financial advisors argue that treasure assets, (59% of high net worth collectors experienced in increased interest in collecting), such as art, help diversify portfolios and protect against inflation. However, few of the wealthy own treasures solely as an investment or a hedge if conventional assets fail. The primary motivation for owning treasure assets remains emotional.
Source: An Art Basel & UBS Report: 2020
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